Sunday 18 October · 17:00
Sturm Graz – Grazer AK
Sturm Graz
4th · attack 1.20 · defence 0.92
Grazer AK
9th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.29
Our model makes Sturm Graz favourites for Sturm Graz – Grazer AK, at 63%. Kick-off 18 October 2026, 17:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sturm Graz win 63% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Grazer AK win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.96 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Grazer AK, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.96 for Sturm Graz, 0.83 for Grazer AK.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sturm Graz wins; above it, Grazer AK wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Sturm Graz goals in rows, Grazer AK goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sturm Graz v Grazer AK?
Sturm Graz, at 63%. The full split is Sturm Graz 63%, draw 23%, Grazer AK 14%.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz v Grazer AK?
2–0, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz v Grazer AK?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.96 for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Grazer AK.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz v Grazer AK?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet or Grazer AK fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.