Sunday 18 October · 14:30
Wolfsberger AC – WSG Tirol
Wolfsberger AC
11th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.14
WSG Tirol
7th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.38
Our model makes Wolfsberger AC favourites for Wolfsberger AC – WSG Tirol, at 54%. Kick-off 18 October 2026, 14:30.
Across the full score distribution, Wolfsberger AC win 54% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and WSG Tirol win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.81 goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.07 for WSG Tirol, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.81 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.07 for WSG Tirol.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Wolfsberger AC wins; above it, WSG Tirol wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Wolfsberger AC goals in rows, WSG Tirol goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol?
Wolfsberger AC, at 54%. The full split is Wolfsberger AC 54%, draw 25%, WSG Tirol 21%.
What is the most likely score in Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.81 for Wolfsberger AC and 1.07 for WSG Tirol.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet or WSG Tirol fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.