Saturday 10 October · 17:00
WSG Tirol – Ried
WSG Tirol
7th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.38
Ried
5th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.19
Our model makes WSG Tirol favourites for WSG Tirol – Ried, at 40%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 17:00.
Across the full score distribution, WSG Tirol win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Ried win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.42 goals for WSG Tirol and 1.25 for Ried, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.42 for WSG Tirol, 1.25 for Ried.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, WSG Tirol wins; above it, Ried wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
WSG Tirol goals in rows, Ried goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in WSG Tirol v Ried?
WSG Tirol, at 40%. The full split is WSG Tirol 40%, draw 28%, Ried 32%.
What is the most likely score in WSG Tirol v Ried?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in WSG Tirol v Ried?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.42 for WSG Tirol and 1.25 for Ried.
Will both teams score in WSG Tirol v Ried?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. WSG Tirol keep a clean sheet or Ried fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.