Bundesliga
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Analysis — Bundesliga
Short pieces built on the same computations as the tables. The figures in them are not copied out: they follow the model.
Title raceBundesligaWho will win the Bundesliga in 2026-27?
Bayern are champions in 86% of simulated seasons, the highest title probability in Europe. Their attacking index is the strongest of our six leagues — and it is the attack, not the defence, that closes this league.
TitleBundesligaBayern are sixth, and champions in 85% of seasons
It is the widest gap across the six leagues we cover: two matchdays adrift in the table, and the highest title probability in Europe.