Saturday 17 October · 15:30 · 6th matchday
Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
16th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.37
VfB Stuttgart
15th · attack 1.39 · defence 1.14
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites for Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart, at 53%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Hamburger SV win 23% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and VfB Stuttgart win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.18 goals for Hamburger SV and 1.90 for VfB Stuttgart, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.18 for Hamburger SV, 1.90 for VfB Stuttgart.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hamburger SV wins; above it, VfB Stuttgart wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Hamburger SV goals in rows, VfB Stuttgart goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart, at 53%. The full split is Hamburger SV 23%, draw 24%, VfB Stuttgart 53%.
What is the most likely score in Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart?
1–1, which comes up in 11.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.18 for Hamburger SV and 1.90 for VfB Stuttgart.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet or VfB Stuttgart fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.