Championship
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City | 8 | 17 | +7 | 3% | 71.5 | 0% |
| 2 |  West Ham Unitedpromoted | 8 | 15 | +11 | 44% | 85.2 | 0% |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 15 | +4 | 7% | 75.3 | 0% |
| 4 |  Southampton | 8 | 14 | +9 | 26% | 81.6 | 0% |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton Wandererspromoted | 7 | 14 | +5 | 14% | 78.5 | 0% |
| 6 |  West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 14 | +2 | 1% | 65.2 | 2% |
| 7 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 13 | +3 | 0% | 59.0 | 9% |
| 8 |  Stoke City | 8 | 13 | +1 | 0% | 61.5 | 6% |
| 9 |  Bristol City | 8 | 13 | -1 | 0% | 62.0 | 6% |
| 10 |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | 12 | -3 | 0% | 54.6 | 23% |
| 11 |  Birmingham City | 8 | 11 | +1 | 0% | 63.8 | 3% |
| 12 |  Millwall | 8 | 11 | 0 | 2% | 68.2 | 1% |
| 13 |  Lincoln Citypromoted | 8 | 11 | -1 | 0% | 62.5 | 6% |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 10 | -3 | 0% | 61.1 | 7% |
| 15 |  Bolton Wandererspromoted | 8 | 10 | -4 | 0% | 56.0 | 20% |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 56.2 | 15% |
| 17 |  Norwich City | 8 | 9 | -1 | 1% | 64.0 | 3% |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | 9 | -2 | 0% | 63.1 | 4% |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 8 | -1 | 0% | 53.2 | 28% |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 8 | -3 | 0% | 52.5 | 30% |
| 21 |  Cardiff Citypromoted | 8 | 7 | -2 | 0% | 48.8 | 46% |
| 22 |  Derby County | 8 | 5 | -7 | 0% | 54.5 | 23% |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | 4 | -7 | 0% | 46.6 | 58% |
| 24 |  Burnleypromoted | 8 | 4 | -8 | 0% | 60.0 | 9% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 3,847 matches, weighted so that recent ones count more.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
123456789101112131415161718192021222324West Ham United44191175Southampton2624171175Wolverhampton Wanderers14211712975Middlesbrough713151411976Swansea City7101111108765Millwall7898877655West Bromwich Albion567777776655Norwich City56777776655Birmingham City566777766655Sheffield United5666676666655Lincoln City5566666666555Bristol City5556666666555Stoke City556666666655Wrexham5566666666555Burnley5556666666555Queens Park Rangers5556667767665Blackburn Rovers556667777765Bolton Wanderers5555666777776Derby County55667788887Charlton Athletic55667788887Portsmouth5667889999Watford566789910109Cardiff City567810131519Preston North End56810121828
West Ham United44191175Southampton2624171175Wolverhampton Wanderers14211712975Middlesbrough713151411976Swansea City7101111108765Millwall7898877655West Bromwich Albion567777776655Norwich City56777776655Birmingham City566777766655Sheffield United5666676666655Lincoln City5566666666555Bristol City5556666666555Stoke City556666666655Wrexham5566666666555Burnley5556666666555Queens Park Rangers5556667767665Blackburn Rovers556667777765Bolton Wanderers5555666777776Derby County55667788887Charlton Athletic55667788887Portsmouth5667889999Watford566789910109Cardiff City567810131519Preston North End56810121828The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
West Ham United2.1eWolverhampton Wanderers3.7eSouthampton3.1e