Championship
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City | 8 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 1.63 | 0.75 | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| 2 |  West Ham Unitedpromoted | 8 | 15 | 22 | 11 | 2.75 | 1.38 | 1.65 | 1.11 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.02 |
| 4 |  Southampton | 8 | 14 | 19 | 10 | 2.38 | 1.25 | 1.45 | 1.04 |
| 5 |  Wolverhampton Wandererspromoted | 7 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 2.14 | 1.43 | 1.36 | 1.08 |
| 6 |  West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| 7 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 1.25 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 1.20 |
| 8 |  Stoke City | 8 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 1.63 | 1.50 | 0.93 | 1.13 |
| 9 |  Bristol City | 8 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 1.38 | 1.50 | 0.99 | 1.13 |
| 10 |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 0.78 | 1.08 |
| 11 |  Birmingham City | 8 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 8 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| 13 |  Lincoln Citypromoted | 8 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.93 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 1.13 | 1.50 | 1.09 | 1.19 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wandererspromoted | 8 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 1.38 | 1.88 | 1.02 | 1.30 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| 17 |  Norwich City | 8 | 9 | 16 | 17 | 2.00 | 2.13 | 1.19 | 1.20 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 1.13 | 1.38 | 1.07 | 1.09 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 1.29 | 1.43 | 0.93 | 1.22 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 0.86 | 1.16 |
| 21 |  Cardiff Citypromoted | 8 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 0.90 | 1.26 |
| 22 |  Derby County | 8 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 0.88 | 1.75 | 0.98 | 1.13 |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 1.00 | 1.88 | 0.90 | 1.25 |
| 24 |  Burnleypromoted | 8 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 1.13 | 2.13 | 1.04 | 1.02 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.