Ekstraklasa
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | UCL | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 22 | +8 | 17% | 39% | 58.5 | 0% |
| 2 |  Lech Poznań | 9 | 20 | +10 | 46% | 69% | 63.0 | 0% |
| 3 |  Legia Warszawa | 9 | 19 | +11 | 22% | 46% | 59.1 | 0% |
| 4 |  Wisła Krakówpromoted | 9 | 17 | +5 | 1% | 3% | 47.6 | 4% |
| 5 |  Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 16 | +6 | 9% | 23% | 55.2 | 0% |
| 6 |  Korona Kielce | 9 | 15 | +2 | 1% | 2% | 46.8 | 5% |
| 7 |  Zagłębie Lubin | 9 | 15 | +1 | 0% | 2% | 46.0 | 6% |
| 8 |  Katowice | 9 | 13 | +3 | 1% | 4% | 47.8 | 4% |
| 9 |  Piast Gliwice | 9 | 13 | +1 | 1% | 3% | 47.2 | 4% |
| 10 |  Jagiellonia Białystok | 9 | 13 | -1 | 2% | 8% | 50.8 | 1% |
| 11 |  Wisła Płock | 9 | 12 | -3 | 0% | 1% | 43.7 | 12% |
| 12 |  Widzew Lodz | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 39.9 | 26% |
| 13 |  Cracovia Kraków | 9 | 8 | -5 | 0% | 0% | 41.5 | 20% |
| 14 |  Radomiak Radom | 9 | 8 | -13 | 0% | 0% | 37.3 | 46% |
| 15 |  Śląsk Wrocławpromoted | 9 | 6 | -4 | 0% | 0% | 38.0 | 38% |
| 16 |  Wieczysta Krakówpromoted | 9 | 6 | -6 | 0% | 0% | 31.6 | 77% |
| 17 |  Motor Lublin | 9 | 6 | -6 | 0% | 0% | 37.0 | 45% |
| 18 |  Raków Częstochowa | 9 | 3 | -9 | 0% | 1% | 43.8 | 11% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,026 matches, weighted so that recent ones count more.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
123456789101112131415161718Lech Poznań4623137Legia Warszawa2224191385Górnik Zabrze17211914107Pogoń Szczecin914161612975Jagiellonia Białystok59111211109765Katowice5799101098765Wisła Kraków689101099876Piast Gliwice6891010988765Korona Kielce579910998865Zagłębie Lubin5688910998765Raków Częstochowa67889998875Wisła Płock56789999886Cracovia Kraków56788910101097Widzew Lodz568910111111106Śląsk Wrocław56891012131411Motor Lublin5681012141614Radomiak Radom5681012151714Wieczysta Kraków58122144
Lech Poznań4623137Legia Warszawa2224191385Górnik Zabrze17211914107Pogoń Szczecin914161612975Jagiellonia Białystok59111211109765Katowice5799101098765Wisła Kraków689101099876Piast Gliwice6891010988765Korona Kielce579910998865Zagłębie Lubin5688910998765Raków Częstochowa67889998875Wisła Płock56789999886Cracovia Kraków56788910101097Widzew Lodz568910111111106Śląsk Wrocław56891012131411Motor Lublin5681012141614Radomiak Radom5681012151714Wieczysta Kraków58122144The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Lech Poznań2.1eLegia Warszawa3.3eGórnik Zabrze3.5e