Sunday 11 October · 17:00 · 23rd matchday
Aalesund – Sarpsborg 08
Aalesund
14th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.55
Sarpsborg 08
9th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Aalesund favourites for Aalesund – Sarpsborg 08, at 44%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 17:00.
Across the full score distribution, Aalesund win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Sarpsborg 08 win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for Aalesund and 1.44 for Sarpsborg 08, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.72 for Aalesund, 1.44 for Sarpsborg 08.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Aalesund wins; above it, Sarpsborg 08 wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Aalesund goals in rows, Sarpsborg 08 goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08?
Aalesund, at 44%. The full split is Aalesund 44%, draw 24%, Sarpsborg 08 32%.
What is the most likely score in Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08?
1–1, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for Aalesund and 1.44 for Sarpsborg 08.
Will both teams score in Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Aalesund keep a clean sheet or Sarpsborg 08 fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.