Eliteserien
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | UCL | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 21 | 50 | +34 | 33% | 100% | 68.1 | 0% |
| 2 |  Bodø / Glimt | 21 | 50 | +34 | 67% | 100% | 70.3 | 0% |
| 3 |  Tromsø | 21 | 38 | +11 | 0% | 0% | 50.6 | 0% |
| 4 |  Molde | 21 | 36 | +12 | 0% | 0% | 48.5 | 0% |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 21 | 33 | +9 | 0% | 0% | 49.0 | 0% |
| 6 |  Lillestrømpromoted | 21 | 32 | -1 | 0% | 0% | 44.8 | 0% |
| 7 |  Brann | 21 | 29 | +7 | 0% | 0% | 43.3 | 0% |
| 8 |  Fredrikstad | 21 | 28 | -7 | 0% | 0% | 39.0 | 0% |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 21 | 25 | -5 | 0% | 0% | 37.3 | 1% |
| 10 |  KFUM | 21 | 25 | -10 | 0% | 0% | 34.6 | 5% |
| 11 |  Sandefjord | 21 | 23 | -6 | 0% | 0% | 36.2 | 3% |
| 12 |  Vålerenga | 21 | 23 | -9 | 0% | 0% | 32.6 | 14% |
| 13 |  HamKam | 21 | 23 | -15 | 0% | 0% | 32.4 | 15% |
| 14 |  Aalesundpromoted | 21 | 21 | -13 | 0% | 0% | 30.5 | 29% |
| 15 |  Kristiansund | 21 | 19 | -19 | 0% | 0% | 28.6 | 53% |
| 16 |  Startpromoted | 21 | 16 | -22 | 0% | 0% | 25.4 | 80% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 1,710 matches, weighted so that recent ones count more.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
12345678910111213141516Bodø / Glimt6733Viking3367Tromsø40281810Rosenborg292723135Molde232624168Lillestrøm610162522116Brann8142325137Fredrikstad614222015105Sarpsborg 08101820181385Sandefjord714181815117KFUM712161917139Vålerenga6101418181510HamKam691216191811Aalesund58131821209Kristiansund5812193023Start5102159
Bodø / Glimt6733Viking3367Tromsø40281810Rosenborg292723135Molde232624168Lillestrøm610162522116Brann8142325137Fredrikstad614222015105Sarpsborg 08101820181385Sandefjord714181815117KFUM712161917139Vålerenga6101418181510HamKam691216191811Aalesund58131821209Kristiansund5812193023Start5102159The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Viking1.7eBodø / Glimt1.3eTromsø4.1e