Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 23rd matchday
Bodø / Glimt – Kristiansund
Bodø / Glimt
2nd · attack 1.78 · defence 0.79
Kristiansund
15th · attack 0.79 · defence 1.43
Our model makes Bodø / Glimt favourites for Bodø / Glimt – Kristiansund, at 89%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Bodø / Glimt win 89% of the time, the draw comes up 8% and Kristiansund win 3%. The single most likely scoreline is 3–0, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 3.55 goals for Bodø / Glimt and 0.63 for Kristiansund, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 79% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 3.55 for Bodø / Glimt, 0.63 for Kristiansund.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bodø / Glimt wins; above it, Kristiansund wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 2 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 7 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Bodø / Glimt goals in rows, Kristiansund goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bodø / Glimt v Kristiansund?
Bodø / Glimt, at 89%. The full split is Bodø / Glimt 89%, draw 8%, Kristiansund 3%.
What is the most likely score in Bodø / Glimt v Kristiansund?
3–0, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bodø / Glimt v Kristiansund?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 79% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 92% of the time. Expected goals are 3.55 for Bodø / Glimt and 0.63 for Kristiansund.
Will both teams score in Bodø / Glimt v Kristiansund?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Bodø / Glimt keep a clean sheet or Kristiansund fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.