Sunday 11 October · 14:30 · 23rd matchday
Fredrikstad – Tromsø
Fredrikstad
8th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.02
Tromsø
3rd · attack 1.21 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Fredrikstad favourites for Fredrikstad – Tromsø, at 37% — but only 2.4% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:30.
Across the full score distribution, Fredrikstad win 37% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Tromsø win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.29 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.24 for Tromsø, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.29 for Fredrikstad, 1.24 for Tromsø.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fredrikstad wins; above it, Tromsø wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fredrikstad goals in rows, Tromsø goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fredrikstad v Tromsø?
Fredrikstad, at 37%. The full split is Fredrikstad 37%, draw 28%, Tromsø 35%.
What is the most likely score in Fredrikstad v Tromsø?
1–1, which comes up in 13.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fredrikstad v Tromsø?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.29 for Fredrikstad and 1.24 for Tromsø.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad v Tromsø?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet or Tromsø fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.