Saturday 17 October · 14:00 · 24th matchday
HamKam – Bodø / Glimt
HamKam
13th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.42
Bodø / Glimt
2nd · attack 1.78 · defence 0.80
Our model makes Bodø / Glimt favourites for HamKam – Bodø / Glimt, at 69%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, HamKam win 13% of the time, the draw comes up 17% and Bodø / Glimt win 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.04 goals for HamKam and 2.53 for Bodø / Glimt, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.04 for HamKam, 2.53 for Bodø / Glimt.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, HamKam wins; above it, Bodø / Glimt wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
HamKam goals in rows, Bodø / Glimt goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in HamKam v Bodø / Glimt?
Bodø / Glimt, at 69%. The full split is HamKam 13%, draw 17%, Bodø / Glimt 69%.
What is the most likely score in HamKam v Bodø / Glimt?
1–2, which comes up in 9.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in HamKam v Bodø / Glimt?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 1.04 for HamKam and 2.53 for Bodø / Glimt.
Will both teams score in HamKam v Bodø / Glimt?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. HamKam keep a clean sheet or Bodø / Glimt fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.