Monday 12 October · 19:00 · 23rd matchday
KFUM – Vålerenga
KFUM
10th · attack 0.88 · defence 1.20
Vålerenga
12th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.55
Our model makes KFUM favourites for KFUM – Vålerenga, at 49%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, KFUM win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Vålerenga win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.90 goals for KFUM and 1.38 for Vålerenga, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.90 for KFUM, 1.38 for Vålerenga.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, KFUM wins; above it, Vålerenga wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
KFUM goals in rows, Vålerenga goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in KFUM v Vålerenga?
KFUM, at 49%. The full split is KFUM 49%, draw 23%, Vålerenga 28%.
What is the most likely score in KFUM v Vålerenga?
1–1, which comes up in 10.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in KFUM v Vålerenga?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.90 for KFUM and 1.38 for Vålerenga.
Will both teams score in KFUM v Vålerenga?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. KFUM keep a clean sheet or Vålerenga fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.