Sunday 11 October · 19:15 · 23rd matchday
Lillestrøm – Molde
Lillestrøm
6th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.09
Molde
4th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.17
Our model makes Lillestrøm favourites for Lillestrøm – Molde, at 38% — but only 1.9% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 19:15.
Across the full score distribution, Lillestrøm win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Molde win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.50 goals for Lillestrøm and 1.45 for Molde, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.50 for Lillestrøm, 1.45 for Molde.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lillestrøm wins; above it, Molde wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lillestrøm goals in rows, Molde goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lillestrøm v Molde?
Lillestrøm, at 38%. The full split is Lillestrøm 38%, draw 25%, Molde 36%.
What is the most likely score in Lillestrøm v Molde?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lillestrøm v Molde?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.50 for Lillestrøm and 1.45 for Molde.
Will both teams score in Lillestrøm v Molde?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Lillestrøm keep a clean sheet or Molde fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.