Saturday 10 October · 18:00 · 23rd matchday
Rosenborg – Sandefjord
Rosenborg
5th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.07
Sandefjord
11th · attack 0.92 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Rosenborg favourites for Rosenborg – Sandefjord, at 57%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Rosenborg win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Sandefjord win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.85 goals for Rosenborg and 0.99 for Sandefjord, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.85 for Rosenborg, 0.99 for Sandefjord.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rosenborg wins; above it, Sandefjord wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Rosenborg goals in rows, Sandefjord goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rosenborg v Sandefjord?
Rosenborg, at 57%. The full split is Rosenborg 57%, draw 23%, Sandefjord 19%.
What is the most likely score in Rosenborg v Sandefjord?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rosenborg v Sandefjord?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.85 for Rosenborg and 0.99 for Sandefjord.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg v Sandefjord?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Rosenborg keep a clean sheet or Sandefjord fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.