Sunday 11 October · 17:00 · 23rd matchday
Start – HamKam
Start
16th · attack 0.80 · defence 1.44
HamKam
13th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.42
Our model makes Start favourites for Start – HamKam, at 42%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 17:00.
Across the full score distribution, Start win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and HamKam win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.58 goals for Start and 1.36 for HamKam, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.58 for Start, 1.36 for HamKam.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Start wins; above it, HamKam wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Start goals in rows, HamKam goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Start v HamKam?
Start, at 42%. The full split is Start 42%, draw 25%, HamKam 32%.
What is the most likely score in Start v HamKam?
1–1, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Start v HamKam?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.58 for Start and 1.36 for HamKam.
Will both teams score in Start v HamKam?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Start keep a clean sheet or HamKam fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.