Eredivisie
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | UCL | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 19 | +12 | 4% | 43% | 65.0 | 0% |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 17 | +18 | 20% | 83% | 71.8 | 0% |
| 3 |  PSV | 7 | 16 | +14 | 71% | 98% | 78.5 | 0% |
| 4 |  FC Twente | 7 | 16 | +8 | 2% | 29% | 62.4 | 0% |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 14 | +12 | 3% | 45% | 64.9 | 0% |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 13 | -1 | 0% | 0% | 43.4 | 0% |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 11 | +6 | 0% | 0% | 45.6 | 0% |
| 8 |  FC Groningen | 7 | 11 | +2 | 0% | 0% | 46.5 | 0% |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 10 | +2 | 0% | 1% | 48.6 | 0% |
| 10 |  SC Heerenveen | 7 | 9 | +2 | 0% | 0% | 43.7 | 0% |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 8 | -1 | 0% | 1% | 48.9 | 0% |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 5 | -7 | 0% | 0% | 37.1 | 4% |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 5 | -7 | 0% | 0% | 38.2 | 4% |
| 14 |  SC Cambuurpromoted | 7 | 5 | -9 | 0% | 0% | 27.0 | 43% |
| 15 |  FC Utrecht | 7 | 5 | -13 | 0% | 0% | 47.1 | 0% |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 4 | -14 | 0% | 0% | 31.1 | 19% |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haagpromoted | 7 | 2 | -10 | 0% | 0% | 23.6 | 62% |
| 18 |  Willem IIpromoted | 7 | 2 | -14 | 0% | 0% | 22.9 | 67% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,063 matches, weighted so that recent ones count more.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
123456789101112131415161718PSV71216Feyenoord204121115Ajax152726196AZ Alkmaar142527207FC Twente9182527105NEC Nijmegen7161614121086Go Ahead Eagles6151615121086FC Utrecht11131413121086FC Groningen10121313121197Excelsior1011121212111085SC Heerenveen691111121312107Fortuna Sittard57911131313129Telstar56810121516137Sparta Rotterdam579121619148PEC Zwolle59152422136SC Cambuur5815222221ADO Den Haag510182933Willem II9182937
PSV71216Feyenoord204121115Ajax152726196AZ Alkmaar142527207FC Twente9182527105NEC Nijmegen7161614121086Go Ahead Eagles6151615121086FC Utrecht11131413121086FC Groningen10121313121197Excelsior1011121212111085SC Heerenveen691111121312107Fortuna Sittard57911131313129Telstar56810121516137Sparta Rotterdam579121619148PEC Zwolle59152422136SC Cambuur5815222221ADO Den Haag510182933Willem II9182937The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Feyenoord2.4eAjax3.7ePSV1.3e