Eredivisie
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 2.57 | 0.86 | 1.32 | 1.01 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 17 | 25 | 7 | 3.57 | 1.00 | 1.64 | 0.91 |
| 3 |  PSV | 7 | 16 | 24 | 10 | 3.43 | 1.43 | 2.14 | 1.00 |
| 4 |  FC Twente | 7 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 2.14 | 1.00 | 1.30 | 0.96 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 14 | 21 | 9 | 3.00 | 1.29 | 1.48 | 0.95 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 1.86 | 2.00 | 0.97 | 1.37 |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 2.14 | 1.29 | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| 8 |  FC Groningen | 7 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 2.14 | 1.86 | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 10 | 16 | 14 | 2.29 | 2.00 | 1.18 | 1.25 |
| 10 |  SC Heerenveen | 7 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 1.71 | 1.86 | 1.32 | 1.22 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 1.43 | 2.43 | 0.92 | 1.28 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 0.71 | 1.71 | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| 14 |  SC Cambuurpromoted | 7 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 1.43 | 2.71 | 0.94 | 1.84 |
| 15 |  FC Utrecht | 7 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 1.57 | 3.43 | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0.86 | 2.86 | 0.90 | 1.54 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haagpromoted | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 1.00 | 2.43 | 0.77 | 1.65 |
| 18 |  Willem IIpromoted | 7 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0.86 | 2.86 | 0.70 | 1.58 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.