Tuesday 13 October · 21:00
Arsenal – LOSC Lille
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.36 · defence 0.68
LOSC Lille
4th · attack 1.18 · defence 0.86
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Arsenal – LOSC Lille, at 69%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Arsenal win 69% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and LOSC Lille win 11%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 16.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.85 goals for Arsenal and 0.57 for LOSC Lille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 36%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.85 for Arsenal, 0.57 for LOSC Lille.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arsenal wins; above it, LOSC Lille wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arsenal goals in rows, LOSC Lille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Arsenal v LOSC Lille?
Arsenal, at 69%. The full split is Arsenal 69%, draw 20%, LOSC Lille 11%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal v LOSC Lille?
1–0, which comes up in 16.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v LOSC Lille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.85 for Arsenal and 0.57 for LOSC Lille.
Will both teams score in Arsenal v LOSC Lille?
Both teams score in 36% of simulations. Arsenal keep a clean sheet or LOSC Lille fail to score in the remaining 64%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.