Wednesday 14 October · 21:00
Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
16th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.16
Fenerbahçe
6th · attack 1.75 · defence 0.96
Our model makes Aston Villa favourites for Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe, at 66%. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Aston Villa win 66% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and Fenerbahçe win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.37 goals for Aston Villa and 1.11 for Fenerbahçe, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.37 for Aston Villa, 1.11 for Fenerbahçe.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Aston Villa wins; above it, Fenerbahçe wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Aston Villa goals in rows, Fenerbahçe goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe?
Aston Villa, at 66%. The full split is Aston Villa 66%, draw 18%, Fenerbahçe 17%.
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe?
2–1, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.37 for Aston Villa and 1.11 for Fenerbahçe.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet or Fenerbahçe fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.