Wednesday 14 October · 21:00
Bodø / Glimt – Borussia Dortmund
Bodø / Glimt
2nd · attack 1.78 · defence 0.79
Borussia Dortmund
1st · attack 1.48 · defence 0.89
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites for Bodø / Glimt – Borussia Dortmund, at 50%. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Bodø / Glimt win 28% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Borussia Dortmund win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.34 goals for Bodø / Glimt and 1.88 for Borussia Dortmund, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.34 for Bodø / Glimt, 1.88 for Borussia Dortmund.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bodø / Glimt wins; above it, Borussia Dortmund wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Bodø / Glimt goals in rows, Borussia Dortmund goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bodø / Glimt v Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund, at 50%. The full split is Bodø / Glimt 28%, draw 22%, Borussia Dortmund 50%.
What is the most likely score in Bodø / Glimt v Borussia Dortmund?
1–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bodø / Glimt v Borussia Dortmund?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.34 for Bodø / Glimt and 1.88 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will both teams score in Bodø / Glimt v Borussia Dortmund?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Bodø / Glimt keep a clean sheet or Borussia Dortmund fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.