Wednesday 14 October · 18:45
Feyenoord – Como
Feyenoord
2nd · attack 1.64 · defence 0.91
Como
8th · attack 1.41 · defence 0.86
Our model makes Como favourites for Feyenoord – Como, at 50%. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Feyenoord win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Como win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.18 goals for Feyenoord and 1.69 for Como, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.18 for Feyenoord, 1.69 for Como.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Feyenoord wins; above it, Como wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Feyenoord goals in rows, Como goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Feyenoord v Como?
Como, at 50%. The full split is Feyenoord 27%, draw 23%, Como 50%.
What is the most likely score in Feyenoord v Como?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Feyenoord v Como?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.18 for Feyenoord and 1.69 for Como.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord v Como?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Feyenoord keep a clean sheet or Como fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.