Tuesday 13 October · 21:00
Inter – Club Brugge
Inter
2nd · attack 1.97 · defence 0.91
Club Brugge
3rd · attack 1.80 · defence 0.80
Our model makes Inter favourites for Inter – Club Brugge, at 68%. Kick-off 13 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Inter win 68% of the time, the draw comes up 16% and Club Brugge win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.72 goals for Inter and 1.29 for Club Brugge, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.72 for Inter, 1.29 for Club Brugge.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Inter wins; above it, Club Brugge wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Inter goals in rows, Club Brugge goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Inter v Club Brugge?
Inter, at 68%. The full split is Inter 68%, draw 16%, Club Brugge 16%.
What is the most likely score in Inter v Club Brugge?
2–1, which comes up in 8.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Inter v Club Brugge?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 91% of the time. Expected goals are 2.72 for Inter and 1.29 for Club Brugge.
Will both teams score in Inter v Club Brugge?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. Inter keep a clean sheet or Club Brugge fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.