Wednesday 14 October · 21:00
Real Betis – Porto
Real Betis
3rd · attack 1.22 · defence 0.93
Porto
1st · attack 1.72 · defence 0.59
Our model makes Porto favourites for Real Betis – Porto, at 39% — but only 3.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Betis win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Porto win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.29 goals for Real Betis and 1.36 for Porto, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.29 for Real Betis, 1.36 for Porto.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Betis wins; above it, Porto wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Real Betis goals in rows, Porto goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Betis v Porto?
Porto, at 39%. The full split is Real Betis 36%, draw 25%, Porto 39%.
What is the most likely score in Real Betis v Porto?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Betis v Porto?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.29 for Real Betis and 1.36 for Porto.
Will both teams score in Real Betis v Porto?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Real Betis keep a clean sheet or Porto fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.