Wednesday 14 October · 21:00
Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens
Shakhtar Donetsk
th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.05
AEK Athens
th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Shakhtar Donetsk favourites for Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens, at 51%. Kick-off 14 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Shakhtar Donetsk win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and AEK Athens win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.67 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.09 for AEK Athens, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.67 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1.09 for AEK Athens.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Shakhtar Donetsk wins; above it, AEK Athens wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Shakhtar Donetsk goals in rows, AEK Athens goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens?
Shakhtar Donetsk, at 51%. The full split is Shakhtar Donetsk 51%, draw 24%, AEK Athens 25%.
What is the most likely score in Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.67 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.09 for AEK Athens.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet or AEK Athens fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.