Sunday 11 October · 16:15 · 9th matchday
Almería – Leganés
Almería
3rd · attack 1.36 · defence 1.04
Leganés
13th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Almería favourites for Almería – Leganés, at 60%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Almería win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Leganés win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.81 goals for Almería and 0.86 for Leganés, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.81 for Almería, 0.86 for Leganés.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Almería wins; above it, Leganés wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Almería goals in rows, Leganés goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Almería v Leganés?
Almería, at 60%. The full split is Almería 60%, draw 23%, Leganés 17%.
What is the most likely score in Almería v Leganés?
1–0, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Almería v Leganés?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.81 for Almería and 0.86 for Leganés.
Will both teams score in Almería v Leganés?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Almería keep a clean sheet or Leganés fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.