Monday 12 October · 16:15 · 9th matchday
Burgos – Granada
Burgos
6th · attack 0.95 · defence 0.81
Granada
9th · attack 1.10 · defence 1.11
Our model makes Burgos favourites for Burgos – Granada, at 48%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Burgos win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Granada win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.37 goals for Burgos and 0.89 for Granada, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.37 for Burgos, 0.89 for Granada.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Burgos wins; above it, Granada wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Burgos goals in rows, Granada goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Burgos v Granada?
Burgos, at 48%. The full split is Burgos 48%, draw 28%, Granada 24%.
What is the most likely score in Burgos v Granada?
1–0, which comes up in 14.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Burgos v Granada?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.37 for Burgos and 0.89 for Granada.
Will both teams score in Burgos v Granada?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Burgos keep a clean sheet or Granada fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.