Sunday 11 October · 21:00 · 9th matchday
Cádiz – Sporting Gijón
Cádiz
19th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.15
Sporting Gijón
8th · attack 1.10 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Sporting Gijón favourites for Cádiz – Sporting Gijón, at 36% — but only 0.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Cádiz win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Sporting Gijón win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.26 goals for Cádiz and 1.26 for Sporting Gijón, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.26 for Cádiz, 1.26 for Sporting Gijón.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Cádiz wins; above it, Sporting Gijón wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Cádiz goals in rows, Sporting Gijón goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Cádiz v Sporting Gijón?
Sporting Gijón, at 36%. The full split is Cádiz 36%, draw 27%, Sporting Gijón 36%.
What is the most likely score in Cádiz v Sporting Gijón?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cádiz v Sporting Gijón?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.26 for Cádiz and 1.26 for Sporting Gijón.
Will both teams score in Cádiz v Sporting Gijón?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Cádiz keep a clean sheet or Sporting Gijón fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.