Saturday 10 October · 21:00 · 9th matchday
Celta Fortuna – Real Sociedad II
Celta Fortuna
18th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.18
Real Sociedad II
16th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.20
Our model makes Celta Fortuna favourites for Celta Fortuna – Real Sociedad II, at 47%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Celta Fortuna win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Real Sociedad II win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.63 goals for Celta Fortuna and 1.19 for Real Sociedad II, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.63 for Celta Fortuna, 1.19 for Real Sociedad II.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Celta Fortuna wins; above it, Real Sociedad II wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Celta Fortuna goals in rows, Real Sociedad II goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Celta Fortuna v Real Sociedad II?
Celta Fortuna, at 47%. The full split is Celta Fortuna 47%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad II 28%.
What is the most likely score in Celta Fortuna v Real Sociedad II?
1–1, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celta Fortuna v Real Sociedad II?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.63 for Celta Fortuna and 1.19 for Real Sociedad II.
Will both teams score in Celta Fortuna v Real Sociedad II?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Celta Fortuna keep a clean sheet or Real Sociedad II fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.