Saturday 10 October · 18:30 · 9th matchday
Eldense – Córdoba
Eldense
17th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.10
Córdoba
15th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.33
Our model makes Eldense favourites for Eldense – Córdoba, at 46%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Eldense win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Córdoba win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.64 goals for Eldense and 1.28 for Córdoba, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.64 for Eldense, 1.28 for Córdoba.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Eldense wins; above it, Córdoba wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Eldense goals in rows, Córdoba goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Eldense v Córdoba?
Eldense, at 46%. The full split is Eldense 46%, draw 25%, Córdoba 30%.
What is the most likely score in Eldense v Córdoba?
1–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Eldense v Córdoba?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.64 for Eldense and 1.28 for Córdoba.
Will both teams score in Eldense v Córdoba?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Eldense keep a clean sheet or Córdoba fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.