Sunday 11 October · 14:00 · 9th matchday
FC Andorra – Castellón
FC Andorra
20th · attack 1.14 · defence 1.15
Castellón
2nd · attack 1.32 · defence 0.96
Our model makes Castellón favourites for FC Andorra – Castellón, at 40% — but only 4.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, FC Andorra win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Castellón win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.43 goals for FC Andorra and 1.52 for Castellón, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.43 for FC Andorra, 1.52 for Castellón.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Andorra wins; above it, Castellón wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Andorra goals in rows, Castellón goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Andorra v Castellón?
Castellón, at 40%. The full split is FC Andorra 36%, draw 25%, Castellón 40%.
What is the most likely score in FC Andorra v Castellón?
1–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Andorra v Castellón?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.43 for FC Andorra and 1.52 for Castellón.
Will both teams score in FC Andorra v Castellón?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. FC Andorra keep a clean sheet or Castellón fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.