Friday 16 October · 20:30 · 10th matchday
Leganés – Córdoba
Leganés
13th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.02
Córdoba
15th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.33
Our model makes Leganés favourites for Leganés – Córdoba, at 43%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 20:30.
Across the full score distribution, Leganés win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Córdoba win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Leganés and 1.18 for Córdoba, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for Leganés, 1.18 for Córdoba.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Leganés wins; above it, Córdoba wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Leganés goals in rows, Córdoba goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Leganés v Córdoba?
Leganés, at 43%. The full split is Leganés 43%, draw 26%, Córdoba 31%.
What is the most likely score in Leganés v Córdoba?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leganés v Córdoba?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Leganés and 1.18 for Córdoba.
Will both teams score in Leganés v Córdoba?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Leganés keep a clean sheet or Córdoba fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.