Sunday 11 October · 18:30 · 9th matchday
Mallorca – Las Palmas
Mallorca
5th · attack 0.90 · defence 0.71
Las Palmas
11th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Mallorca favourites for Mallorca – Las Palmas, at 45%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Mallorca win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Las Palmas win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 16.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.18 goals for Mallorca and 0.79 for Las Palmas, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 31% of the time and both teams scoring 38%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.18 for Mallorca, 0.79 for Las Palmas.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Mallorca wins; above it, Las Palmas wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Mallorca goals in rows, Las Palmas goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Mallorca v Las Palmas?
Mallorca, at 45%. The full split is Mallorca 45%, draw 31%, Las Palmas 25%.
What is the most likely score in Mallorca v Las Palmas?
1–0, which comes up in 16.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mallorca v Las Palmas?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 31% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 59% of the time. Expected goals are 1.18 for Mallorca and 0.79 for Las Palmas.
Will both teams score in Mallorca v Las Palmas?
Both teams score in 38% of simulations. Mallorca keep a clean sheet or Las Palmas fail to score in the remaining 62%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.