Monday 12 October · 18:30 · 9th matchday
Real Oviedo – SD Eibar
Real Oviedo
10th · attack 0.99 · defence 0.90
SD Eibar
1st · attack 1.14 · defence 0.81
Our model makes Real Oviedo favourites for Real Oviedo – SD Eibar, at 35% — but only 1.4% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Real Oviedo win 35% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and SD Eibar win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.05 goals for Real Oviedo and 1.02 for SD Eibar, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 34% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.05 for Real Oviedo, 1.02 for SD Eibar.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Oviedo wins; above it, SD Eibar wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Real Oviedo goals in rows, SD Eibar goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Oviedo v SD Eibar?
Real Oviedo, at 35%. The full split is Real Oviedo 35%, draw 31%, SD Eibar 34%.
What is the most likely score in Real Oviedo v SD Eibar?
1–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Oviedo v SD Eibar?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 34% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 62% of the time. Expected goals are 1.05 for Real Oviedo and 1.02 for SD Eibar.
Will both teams score in Real Oviedo v SD Eibar?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Real Oviedo keep a clean sheet or SD Eibar fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.