Saturday 17 October · 14:00 · 10th matchday
Real Sociedad II – Almería
Real Sociedad II
16th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.20
Almería
3rd · attack 1.36 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Almería favourites for Real Sociedad II – Almería, at 44%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Sociedad II win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Almería win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.36 goals for Real Sociedad II and 1.64 for Almería, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.36 for Real Sociedad II, 1.64 for Almería.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Sociedad II wins; above it, Almería wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Real Sociedad II goals in rows, Almería goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Sociedad II v Almería?
Almería, at 44%. The full split is Real Sociedad II 32%, draw 24%, Almería 44%.
What is the most likely score in Real Sociedad II v Almería?
1–1, which comes up in 11.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Sociedad II v Almería?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.36 for Real Sociedad II and 1.64 for Almería.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad II v Almería?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Real Sociedad II keep a clean sheet or Almería fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.