Monday 12 October · 14:00 · 9th matchday
Real Valladolid – Albacete
Real Valladolid
14th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.10
Albacete
22nd · attack 0.98 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Real Valladolid favourites for Real Valladolid – Albacete, at 41%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Real Valladolid win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Albacete win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.27 goals for Real Valladolid and 1.08 for Albacete, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.27 for Real Valladolid, 1.08 for Albacete.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Valladolid wins; above it, Albacete wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Real Valladolid goals in rows, Albacete goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Valladolid v Albacete?
Real Valladolid, at 41%. The full split is Real Valladolid 41%, draw 28%, Albacete 31%.
What is the most likely score in Real Valladolid v Albacete?
1–1, which comes up in 13.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Valladolid v Albacete?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.27 for Real Valladolid and 1.08 for Albacete.
Will both teams score in Real Valladolid v Albacete?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Real Valladolid keep a clean sheet or Albacete fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.