Monday 12 October · 21:00 · 9th matchday
Tenerife – Girona
Tenerife
12th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.05
Girona
4th · attack 1.20 · defence 0.94
Our model makes Girona favourites for Tenerife – Girona, at 40%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Tenerife win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Girona win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.08 goals for Tenerife and 1.26 for Girona, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.08 for Tenerife, 1.26 for Girona.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Tenerife wins; above it, Girona wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Tenerife goals in rows, Girona goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Tenerife v Girona?
Girona, at 40%. The full split is Tenerife 32%, draw 28%, Girona 40%.
What is the most likely score in Tenerife v Girona?
1–1, which comes up in 13.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tenerife v Girona?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.08 for Tenerife and 1.26 for Girona.
Will both teams score in Tenerife v Girona?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Tenerife keep a clean sheet or Girona fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 6 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.