Sunday 11 October · 15:00
Aberdeen – St. Johnstone
Aberdeen
7th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.13
St. Johnstone
6th · attack 0.71 · defence 1.24
Our model makes Aberdeen favourites for Aberdeen – St. Johnstone, at 53%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Aberdeen win 53% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and St. Johnstone win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 15.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.47 goals for Aberdeen and 0.81 for St. Johnstone, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.47 for Aberdeen, 0.81 for St. Johnstone.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Aberdeen wins; above it, St. Johnstone wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Aberdeen goals in rows, St. Johnstone goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Aberdeen v St. Johnstone?
Aberdeen, at 53%. The full split is Aberdeen 53%, draw 27%, St. Johnstone 21%.
What is the most likely score in Aberdeen v St. Johnstone?
1–0, which comes up in 15.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aberdeen v St. Johnstone?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.47 for Aberdeen and 0.81 for St. Johnstone.
Will both teams score in Aberdeen v St. Johnstone?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Aberdeen keep a clean sheet or St. Johnstone fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.