Saturday 10 October · 16:00
Dundee United – Hibernian
Dundee United
8th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.23
Hibernian
10th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Hibernian favourites for Dundee United – Hibernian, at 41%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Dundee United win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Hibernian win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.22 goals for Dundee United and 1.38 for Hibernian, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.22 for Dundee United, 1.38 for Hibernian.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Dundee United wins; above it, Hibernian wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Dundee United goals in rows, Hibernian goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Dundee United v Hibernian?
Hibernian, at 41%. The full split is Dundee United 33%, draw 26%, Hibernian 41%.
What is the most likely score in Dundee United v Hibernian?
1–1, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dundee United v Hibernian?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.22 for Dundee United and 1.38 for Hibernian.
Will both teams score in Dundee United v Hibernian?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Dundee United keep a clean sheet or Hibernian fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.