Saturday 10 October · 16:00
Falkirk – Dundee
Falkirk
11th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.21
Dundee
4th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.39
Our model makes Falkirk favourites for Falkirk – Dundee, at 50%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Falkirk win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Dundee win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.77 goals for Falkirk and 1.21 for Dundee, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.77 for Falkirk, 1.21 for Dundee.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Falkirk wins; above it, Dundee wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Falkirk goals in rows, Dundee goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Falkirk v Dundee?
Falkirk, at 50%. The full split is Falkirk 50%, draw 23%, Dundee 26%.
What is the most likely score in Falkirk v Dundee?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Falkirk v Dundee?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.77 for Falkirk and 1.21 for Dundee.
Will both teams score in Falkirk v Dundee?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Falkirk keep a clean sheet or Dundee fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.