Saturday 10 October · 16:00
Hearts – St. Mirren
Hearts
3rd · attack 1.18 · defence 0.91
St. Mirren
5th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.15
Our model makes Hearts favourites for Hearts – St. Mirren, at 60%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Hearts win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and St. Mirren win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.71 goals for Hearts and 0.75 for St. Mirren, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.71 for Hearts, 0.75 for St. Mirren.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hearts wins; above it, St. Mirren wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Hearts goals in rows, St. Mirren goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hearts v St. Mirren?
Hearts, at 60%. The full split is Hearts 60%, draw 24%, St. Mirren 16%.
What is the most likely score in Hearts v St. Mirren?
1–0, which comes up in 14.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hearts v St. Mirren?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.71 for Hearts and 0.75 for St. Mirren.
Will both teams score in Hearts v St. Mirren?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Hearts keep a clean sheet or St. Mirren fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.