Saturday 10 October · 16:00
Rangers – Kilmarnock
Rangers
2nd · attack 1.64 · defence 0.83
Kilmarnock
12th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.32
Our model makes Rangers favourites for Rangers – Kilmarnock, at 78%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Rangers win 78% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and Kilmarnock win 8%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 2.75 goals for Rangers and 0.78 for Kilmarnock, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.75 for Rangers, 0.78 for Kilmarnock.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rangers wins; above it, Kilmarnock wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Rangers goals in rows, Kilmarnock goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rangers v Kilmarnock?
Rangers, at 78%. The full split is Rangers 78%, draw 14%, Kilmarnock 8%.
What is the most likely score in Rangers v Kilmarnock?
2–0, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rangers v Kilmarnock?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 2.75 for Rangers and 0.78 for Kilmarnock.
Will both teams score in Rangers v Kilmarnock?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Rangers keep a clean sheet or Kilmarnock fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.