Saturday 10 October · 16:00
Cercle Brugge – Anderlecht
Cercle Brugge
16th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.31
Anderlecht
5th · attack 1.19 · defence 0.97
Our model makes Anderlecht favourites for Cercle Brugge – Anderlecht, at 41%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Cercle Brugge win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Anderlecht win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.37 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.56 for Anderlecht, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.37 for Cercle Brugge, 1.56 for Anderlecht.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Cercle Brugge wins; above it, Anderlecht wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Cercle Brugge goals in rows, Anderlecht goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Cercle Brugge v Anderlecht?
Anderlecht, at 41%. The full split is Cercle Brugge 33%, draw 26%, Anderlecht 41%.
What is the most likely score in Cercle Brugge v Anderlecht?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cercle Brugge v Anderlecht?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.37 for Cercle Brugge and 1.56 for Anderlecht.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge v Anderlecht?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Cercle Brugge keep a clean sheet or Anderlecht fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.