Saturday 10 October · 20:45
Genk – KV Kortrijk
Genk
9th · attack 1.28 · defence 1.02
KV Kortrijk
18th · attack 0.74 · defence 1.46
Our model makes Genk favourites for Genk – KV Kortrijk, at 73%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Genk win 73% of the time, the draw comes up 17% and KV Kortrijk win 9%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 2.38 goals for Genk and 0.75 for KV Kortrijk, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.38 for Genk, 0.75 for KV Kortrijk.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Genk wins; above it, KV Kortrijk wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Genk goals in rows, KV Kortrijk goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Genk v KV Kortrijk?
Genk, at 73%. The full split is Genk 73%, draw 17%, KV Kortrijk 9%.
What is the most likely score in Genk v KV Kortrijk?
2–0, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genk v KV Kortrijk?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.38 for Genk and 0.75 for KV Kortrijk.
Will both teams score in Genk v KV Kortrijk?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Genk keep a clean sheet or KV Kortrijk fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.