Sunday 11 October · 19:15
Mechelen – Sint-Truiden
Mechelen
17th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.21
Sint-Truiden
11th · attack 1.18 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Mechelen favourites for Mechelen – Sint-Truiden, at 39% — but only 3.3% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 19:15.
Across the full score distribution, Mechelen win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Sint-Truiden win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.50 goals for Mechelen and 1.43 for Sint-Truiden, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.50 for Mechelen, 1.43 for Sint-Truiden.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Mechelen wins; above it, Sint-Truiden wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Mechelen goals in rows, Sint-Truiden goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Mechelen v Sint-Truiden?
Mechelen, at 39%. The full split is Mechelen 39%, draw 26%, Sint-Truiden 35%.
What is the most likely score in Mechelen v Sint-Truiden?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mechelen v Sint-Truiden?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.50 for Mechelen and 1.43 for Sint-Truiden.
Will both teams score in Mechelen v Sint-Truiden?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Mechelen keep a clean sheet or Sint-Truiden fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.