Sunday 11 October · 13:30
Standard Liège – Sporting Charleroi
Standard Liège
7th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.04
Sporting Charleroi
4th · attack 1.08 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Standard Liège favourites for Standard Liège – Sporting Charleroi, at 35% — but only 0.5% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Standard Liège win 35% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Sporting Charleroi win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.13 goals for Standard Liège and 1.12 for Sporting Charleroi, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.13 for Standard Liège, 1.12 for Sporting Charleroi.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Standard Liège wins; above it, Sporting Charleroi wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Standard Liège goals in rows, Sporting Charleroi goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Standard Liège v Sporting Charleroi?
Standard Liège, at 35%. The full split is Standard Liège 35%, draw 30%, Sporting Charleroi 35%.
What is the most likely score in Standard Liège v Sporting Charleroi?
1–1, which comes up in 14.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Standard Liège v Sporting Charleroi?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.13 for Standard Liège and 1.12 for Sporting Charleroi.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège v Sporting Charleroi?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Standard Liège keep a clean sheet or Sporting Charleroi fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.