Sunday 11 October · 16:00
Union Saint-Gilloise – OH Leuven
Union Saint-Gilloise
1st · attack 1.52 · defence 0.61
OH Leuven
15th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Union Saint-Gilloise favourites for Union Saint-Gilloise – OH Leuven, at 79%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Union Saint-Gilloise win 79% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and OH Leuven win 6%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 15.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.36 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.50 for OH Leuven, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 36%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.36 for Union Saint-Gilloise, 0.50 for OH Leuven.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Union Saint-Gilloise wins; above it, OH Leuven wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Union Saint-Gilloise goals in rows, OH Leuven goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Union Saint-Gilloise v OH Leuven?
Union Saint-Gilloise, at 79%. The full split is Union Saint-Gilloise 79%, draw 15%, OH Leuven 6%.
What is the most likely score in Union Saint-Gilloise v OH Leuven?
2–0, which comes up in 15.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Union Saint-Gilloise v OH Leuven?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 2.36 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.50 for OH Leuven.
Will both teams score in Union Saint-Gilloise v OH Leuven?
Both teams score in 36% of simulations. Union Saint-Gilloise keep a clean sheet or OH Leuven fail to score in the remaining 64%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.