Sunday 11 October · 18:30
Westerlo – Antwerp
Westerlo
8th · attack 1.26 · defence 1.33
Antwerp
13th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Westerlo favourites for Westerlo – Antwerp, at 42%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Westerlo win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Antwerp win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.64 goals for Westerlo and 1.42 for Antwerp, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.64 for Westerlo, 1.42 for Antwerp.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Westerlo wins; above it, Antwerp wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Westerlo goals in rows, Antwerp goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Westerlo v Antwerp?
Westerlo, at 42%. The full split is Westerlo 42%, draw 25%, Antwerp 33%.
What is the most likely score in Westerlo v Antwerp?
1–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Westerlo v Antwerp?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.64 for Westerlo and 1.42 for Antwerp.
Will both teams score in Westerlo v Antwerp?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Westerlo keep a clean sheet or Antwerp fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.