Saturday 10 October · 20:45
Zulte-Waregem – Gent
Zulte-Waregem
6th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.12
Gent
2nd · attack 1.21 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Zulte-Waregem favourites for Zulte-Waregem – Gent, at 40%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Zulte-Waregem win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Gent win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.49 goals for Zulte-Waregem and 1.35 for Gent, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.49 for Zulte-Waregem, 1.35 for Gent.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Zulte-Waregem wins; above it, Gent wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Zulte-Waregem goals in rows, Gent goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Zulte-Waregem v Gent?
Zulte-Waregem, at 40%. The full split is Zulte-Waregem 40%, draw 26%, Gent 34%.
What is the most likely score in Zulte-Waregem v Gent?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Zulte-Waregem v Gent?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.49 for Zulte-Waregem and 1.35 for Gent.
Will both teams score in Zulte-Waregem v Gent?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Zulte-Waregem keep a clean sheet or Gent fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.